불황에 돈을 벌고 싶다면 농경지로 눈을 돌리는 것도 괜찮겠다

이투데이/민태성 기자]

. 미국 중서부를 중심으로 농경지 가격이 오르면서 일부 지역에서는 1년 동안 40% 이상 급등한 곳도 있다고 CNN머니가 16일(현지시간) 보도했다.

미국 중앙은행 연방준비제도(Fed)에 따르면 중서부 지역의 농경지 가격은 지난해 평균 25% 상승했다. 이는 30년만에 최대 상승폭이다.


캔사스시티와 시카고연방준비은행은 이날 보고서를 통해 미국 부동산시장의 전반적인 부진에도 불구하고 농경지 수요는 급증하고 있다고 분석했다.

캔사스시티준비은행은 보고서에서 “농경지 가격 상승은 아직 정점을 치지 않았다”면서 “농경지 가격은 지난 1년간 25% 상승했으며 목장 역시 14%의 상승률을 기록했다”고 밝혔다.

지역별로는 네브라스카주의 농경지 가격인 1년 동안 40%나 급등해 주목을 끌었다.

전문가들은 농경지 가격의 급등 현상은 신용 혜택이 일반 부동산보다 상대적으로 좋은데다 작물 수확에 대한 기대감이 작용했기 때문으로 보고 있다.

또 일반적으로 농장 수익이 늘어날 경우 토지 가치가 상승한다는 사실도 매력적이라는 평가다.

시카고준비은행은 농지 가격이 전분기 대비 7% 상승했다며 1977년 이후 최대폭으로 올랐다고 밝혔다.

아이오와 지역의 농지 가격은 전년 대비 31% 올랐다.

미국의 일반 부동산시장은 여전히 고전을 면치 못하고 있다.
미 상무부에 따르면 지난 9월 신규주택판매는 전월 대비 5.7% 증가해 연율 31만3000채를 기록했다.
전년과 비교할 때는 0.9% 증가에 그쳤다.

미국 부동산시장이 활황을 보였던 4~5년 전 평균 월 판매가 140만건에 달했다는 사실을 감안하면 최근 흐름은 부동산 침체가 이어지고 있다는 사실을 보여준다는 것이 전문가들의 중론이다.
일각에서는 미국 부동산시장 더블딥(이중침체)을 넘어 트리플딥(삼중침체)에 진입할 것이라는 우려도 나오고 있다.
금융분석기관 파이서브는 최근 보고서를 통해 내년 6월까지 미국 주택가치가 3.6% 추가 하락할 것으로 내다봤다.
이같은 전망이 맞는다면 미국 부동산가격은 지난 2006년 정점을 친 이후 36% 하락하게 된다.
파이서브의 데이비드 스티프 수석 이코노미스트는 “주택 권리를 상실하는 포어클로저의 증가와 고용시장 악화 등 일부 요인들이 시장에 악재로 작용하고 있다”고 지적했다.

Bet the farm: Cropland prices soar 20%

http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/19/real_estate/farm_prices_rise/index.htm

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Corn Belt was the real estate place to be in 2010.

Land prices in the states centered on Iowa grew at a 15% to 20% clip, annualized, over the last six months of the year, according to Creighton University economist Ernie Goss.

 

Prices were sent soaring by higher commodity prices, as crop failures in some food-exporting countries boosted the demand for U.S. grains and soybeans. For example, corn rose to $240 a ton in December compared with $166 just 12 months earlier.

"Commodities have been doing quite well," said Goss. "Income is up and everyone wants to salt away some of that cash. They prefer to put it in farmland."

Dave Miller just bought an 80-acre farm to add to his two existing properties in Lucas County, Iowa, which includes more than 300 acres of tillable land. "A lot of farmers buy land in good times," he said. "It becomes their retirement portfolio."

When he sees land going for below-market prices, Miller grabs it if he can. How does he know it's a good deal?

Because cropland prices in Iowa are easy to figure using the "corn suitability rating," which measures soil productivity from 5 (worst) to 100 (best).

"Typically, in Iowa, you pay between $80 and $100 per corn suitability point," he said. "The farm I just bought had a rating of 40."

That means between $3,200 and $4,000 per acre for the property he purchased, or nearly $320,000 -- a lot of money in a state where the median income is $48,000.

But Miller paid the bargain price of $2,100 acre. "That's why I bought it," he said.

In central Iowa, there are farms that score in the 90s because of easy-to-work, flat topography and deep, rich soils. That land can cost more than $10,000 an acre, making the farmers who own that land among the wealthiest in the state. on paper, at least. They'd have to sell the farm and cash out to reap the rewards.

 

 

0:00 /2:30Hipster farming

Most established farmers don't want to do that, at least until they're ready to retire. They may be getting rich right now but they don't usually profit from increasing land values unless they sell it.

"Farmers don't like to see this," said Goss. "They're not selling, but their property taxes go up."

It's especially hard on the young. "If I'm a young guy starting out, I'd be worried about the rapidly rising farm values," said Miller.

Randy Wuebker, a 32-year-old father of three from southwest Iowa, is trying to put together a good-sized spread, not just for himself but to pass on to his kids.

"I have two boys and a girl, and I'd like them all to be farmers," he said. "But it's hard. Land is very expensive. We're always looking but we can't justify buying, not with what land is bringing at this time."

With the average price per acre in Iowa at more than $5,000 and typical farms upward of 350 acres, the cropland alone may be worth $1.75 million. That's a huge investment for a young entrepreneurial agronomist looking to, well, grow.

Wuebker was lucky in that, more than 10 years ago, with help from his dad, he contracted with a retiring farmer to rent 240-acres, work it and eventually purchase it at $1,800 an acre.

"At the time, I thought it was a lot of money," he said.

No more. It was appraised at $2,600 an acre in 2006, and Wuebker figures it's worth more than $4,000 today, about four times its value when he first began.

Most farmers think long-term trends will keep values high, although the rate of appreciation should slow. one reason for their optimism is the blossoming alternative-energy industry.

Many farmers already sell some corn for ethanol production and others rent space to power companies for wind turbines.

Wuebker, for example, sells his entire crop to an ethanol plant. With those profits in hand, he keeps going to land sales, intending to make offers. The prices keep starting out higher than he would like to bid -- and then go higher still. So he's holding off for now.

"I don't expect prices to drop dramatically, but I do expect a setback in the near future," he said. 

 

Randy Wuebker would like to buy 600 to 700 acres of Iowa farmland so his kids can carry on the family tradition. But with skyrocketing land prices, he may have to hold off.