Germany remains an exception to Europe's gloomy real estate picture

 

09 8월, 16:29www.property-magazine.eu

According to the latest RICS Global Commercial Property Survey published today, Germany and Belgium are the only European markets to record positive sentiment in both the occupier and investment commercial property markets during the second quarter of 2013.

 

 While recovery in the UAE continues to gain traction and Asia remains a general upbeat story, in Europe headline indicators generally remain weak towards real estate, reflecting the on-going recession in the region. Germany, Europe’s largest economy continues to be an exception in terms of the growth outlook and sentiment within real estate. It remains increasingly attractive to investors with the RICS Investment sentiment Index climbing from 18 to 22.

 

 Though in other European markets, such as Spain, Greece or Poland, investment appetite for commercial property is actually improving, this has yet to fully translate into stronger expectations for capital values, as it actually happens in Belgium, Austria, Switzerland and Ireland.

 

 In France and the Netherlands, tenant demand and investment enquiries are deteriorating at a faster pace. Available space is rising this quarter and rents and capital values are expected to decline further in the coming months.

 

 By way of contrast, further improvements in sentiment in both the occupier and investment segments of the UAE real estate market show that the tone in the property industry is continuing to gain ground. The picture in Brazil is rather more downbeat, particularly in the occupier market where the headline sentiment indicator dropped to –39 from –28. It has now been in negative territory for three successive quarters reflecting softer numbers on tenant demand and rent expectations as well as higher figures for inducements. This worsening trend chimes with the more downbeat tone to recent economic news flow. However the Brazilian investment market is continuing to display a greater degree of resilience with our data suggesting that property investors are for the time being willing to take a longer term view of the prospects for the economy.

 

 The results for Asia demonstrate promise with Japan leading the way on the investment side while also delivering a strong result for the occupier market helped by the dramatic policy initiatives being introduced by Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe. Interestingly, the fear that the Q1 survey picked up surrounding the widening of the stamp duty net in Hong Kong to the commercial sector appear to have eased somewhat. Headline numbers for China remain generally firm despite a slight loss of momentum in the economy and growing concerns over the rapid increase in credit with the investment indicator more positive than the occupier measure.

 

 The real estate picture in India holds broadly flat reflecting a degree of caution in the sector as the central bank grapples with the challenge presented by a subdued economy and volatility in the currency.

 

 Results for the United States are encouraging with further evidence of rising investor appetite and stronger tenant demand driving both rents and capital value expectations in an upward direction despite some mixed economic data. Meanwhile, the numbers for Canada remain generally firm.

 

 Finally in Australia, the occupier index remains in negative territory and to a greater extent than in Q1 as the economy continues to disappoint while the investment index is slightly positive but less than was previously the case.

 

 Commenting on the Q2 survey results, Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, said: 'The results of the survey show that the weak economic picture across much of Europe is continuing to be reflected in the lack of demand to occupy property space. Not surprisingly in the light of this, the rental outlook remains depressed away from prime real estate in key centres. Meanwhile, the German market continues to be strongest performer on the continent on the back of the relatively buoyant macro picture'